Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $59,437$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,401.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(57,401.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,619$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,300.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,300.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,494$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $290,581$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{287,028.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(287,028.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40,968$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(6.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,003.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,003.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $248,356$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,966$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(6.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,736.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(231,736.6\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(7.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,195.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,195.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $64,454$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $235,561$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(5.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,320.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(229,320.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,043$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(6.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,909.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,909.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,872$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,924$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,688.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(48,688.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,717$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(579 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,647.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,647.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,207$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $191,523$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,763.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(183,763.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,299$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,205.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,205.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $90,598$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $48,109$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(9.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,907.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(45,907.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,050$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,912.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,912.2\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,878$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,215$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(4.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,784.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,784.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,691$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(252 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,639.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,639.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $826$ on 2020-06-09