Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $59,437$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,401.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(57,401.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,619$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,300.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,300.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,494$ on 2020-06-09

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $290,581$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{287,028.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(287,028.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,968$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(6.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,003.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,003.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $248,356$ on 2020-06-09

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $241,966$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(6.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,736.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(231,736.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(7.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,195.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,195.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $64,454$ on 2020-06-09

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $235,561$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(5.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,320.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(229,320.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,043$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(6.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,909.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,909.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,872$ on 2020-06-09

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,924$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,688.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(48,688.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,717$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(579 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,647.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,647.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,207$ on 2020-06-09

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $191,523$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,763.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(183,763.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,299$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,205.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,205.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,598$ on 2020-06-09

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,109$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(9.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,907.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(45,907.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,050$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,912.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,912.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,878$ on 2020-06-09

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,215$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,784.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,784.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,691$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(252 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,639.5}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,639.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $826$ on 2020-06-09

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Croatia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 99%
Serbia recovered 94%
Andorra recovered 91%
Denmark recovered 85%
Lithuania recovered 70%
Italy recovered 70%
San Marino recovered 66%
Hungary recovered 44%
Romania recovered 42%

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(559 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,209.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,209.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(20.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(104.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-09

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,046$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,892.7}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,892.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(31.7 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(108.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-06-09

Serbia⮸

Population $8,737,371$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,965$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,299.0}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(11,299.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $250$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(58.7 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{246.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(246.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $447$ on 2020-06-09

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $852$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(235 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{771.4}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(771.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-06-09

Best fit exponential: \(19.1 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 21.2)}}\) (asimptote \(50.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44$ on 2020-06-09